Sep
12
2010 before 2012
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Read an interesting articleby Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin this morning about the 2012 general election political campaigning (or lack thereof, as it is) within the Republican Party.
I remember from 2006 when the behind-the-scenes campaigning was already started at this point, but with the political atmosphere today being so diametrically opposed to that of four years ago, it would be detrimental to the party to have any prospective challengers for the presidency out and about at this time.
Today, the Republicans are looking at a best case scenario of retaking the House, and drawing even in the Senate. Anything to draw the attention away from how poorly the Democrats have managed the economy at this point would be a mistake. Any prospective presidential candidate coming out into the open shifts the focus to 2012, and away from 2010, where the party is sure to make significant gains barring any last minute catastrophes. Similarly to 2006 and 2008 — more so in the latter cycle — the Republicans will need to focus on linking their respective opponents to an increasingly unpopular president. The Democrats did this with great success in the aforementioned election cycles in comparing nearly each and every Republican opponent to George W. Bush, and now is the time for the Republicans to do the same with President Obama.
While President Obama remains personally popular amongst the general populous, his policies are anything but. Accordingly to a poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports last week, 48% of likely voters rate the President’s performance on the economy as poor, while only 36% rate his performance as ‘good or excellent.’ Similarly, in a separate poll also conducted by Rasmussen, 61% of likely voters said that cutting taxes was a more effective means of creating jobs than the proposed $50billion stimulus that President Obama is currently pushing for. Conversely, 28% thought the stimulus would be more effective. The first of these polls was conducted between September 6-7, while the second was conducted from September 8-9.
With the economy being the predominant issue that voters will be considering while casting their ballots in November, the Republicans will need to focus on the economic failures of the Democratic party as a whole, and not targeting President Obama with prospective 2012 general election candidates. There will be a time and a place for that, with the time being the day after the 2010 mid term cycle.
Sep
9
The Blame Game
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I just read an interesting article on Politico. I generally agree with what both Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen have to say, especially the last bit about Michael Steele being forced from the party should hell freeze over and the Democrats retain control of the House.
Ultimately, Read more
Jul
29
Support for SB1070
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According to a CNN/Opinion Research poll released today, 55% of those polled (1,018 Adult Americans) supported Arizona’s controversial SB1070 illegal immigration law.
On the heels of U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton’s blockage of the most controversial aspects of SB1070, it is interesting to see what the public opinion is on the bill. In reading the news, and watching the demonstrations, it would be hard to imagine anywhere close to this amount of support for the law. While this poll is a representation of, and does not definitively represent public opinion, it is a good indicator that this issue seems to have a loud minority with a slightly more quiet majority.
Also worth noting is that since the announcement of Jan Brewer’s sign-off on SB1070, Arizona’s hotel occupancy and revenues have strongly been on the rise. During May and June, hotel occupancy was up 5.7% and 8.3%, respectively, relative to the same months in 2009. June hotel revenues were also up approximately 11% compared to June 2009. This is not to say that there has not been adverse affects on the state’s economy from the boycotts, as within the same story it is shown that cancelled conventions have negatively impacted the labor force. Clearly, at this point in time the outrage over the bill and correlating impact of the boycott has not had it’s intended affect.
Only time will tell what kind of impact these boycotts will have, though with the passage of time and introduction of other major issues into the mainstream, it can be expected that this will serve as an extraordinarily expensive wake-up call to the Federal government to get their rear ends in gear on illegal immigration. Regardless of the result, it’s clear that illegal immigration legislation is direly needed, and it’s all the more unfortunate that the tax payers are footing the bill for the Federal government to sue one of it’s own states when the money could do so much more. It becomes even worse for the citizens of Arizona, as in addition to their state taxes funding Arizona’s defense, their federal taxes are paying for the Federal government to sue Arizona. Nothing quite like paying for both your prosecution and defense!